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Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific: 21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10). A visual of my prediction can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Geez Andrew, that's a little too ''wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: '''20 '''depressions, '''18 '''named storms, '''12 '''hurricanes, and '''5 '''major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem ''very ''unlikely IMO. Steven09876 05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys. Steve820 20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!) Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) Pre-season predictions About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :Maintaining my forecast from above. AndrewTalk To Me 20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to '''20-24' named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992. Steve820 03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC) May 90E.INVEST Aoi:First of the season Models are bullish on a hurricane into MX next week. Quite consistent as well. Gonna be interesting. Right now, it's located around 100W and is not suppose to move much. YE [[Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:18, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :Already?! Wow. It's not on the NHC TWO yet though, but hopefully it pops up on the outlook and becomes the earliest EPac storm I've ever seen! This season's about to be a wild ride, this El Nino might cause an extremely active season to look forward to... Steve820 21:30, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :I hope this can become something non-destructive! AndrewTalk To Me 22:30, May 4, 2014 (UTC) ::It could be a rainmaker due to its slight motio. It'll more likely be a high end TS then a cane IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 22:49, May 4, 2014 (UTC) :: moderate to me 50 to 60 mph.Allanjeffs 07:00, May 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::This probs won't develop actually. Too much shear IMO. It's a mess right now. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 21:24, May 5, 2014 (UTC) 90.E INVEST STWO and Invested at 50% in 2 and 5 days. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 21:29, May 6, 2014 (UTC) :It may not develop. Conditions are unfavorable closer to the Mexican coast. AndrewTalk To Me 22:24, May 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Having large-scale convective activity this early in the season might be a good indication of the similar storms to come. So many seasons have been busts recently and this year might change that. The East Pacific is generally very tamed outside the seasonal constraints. If this does form soon, it could very well become the earliest recorded formation in the proper. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:01, May 7, 2014 (UTC) :::This shouldn't become anything big. It could still become a named TS though, and beat the record for earliest named storm in the EPac ever! (This doesn't include CPac) The current record is Alma in 1990, which formed on May 12. Future-Amanda could very well break that record to pieces, I've never seen an EPac AOI before May 10!! But if it does develop it'll only be a weakling, but at least it'll be notable for its formation date. And I agree with HurricaneSpin, this might be a sign of a hyperactive season to come! Here we go!!! We're about to launch this roller-coaster we call the "2014 Pacific hurricane season"!! :O Steve820 02:04, May 7, 2014 (UTC) :::Might not develop there is a lot of dry air in its western side and upper level winds to its north so its trap.. and if it develop it might only be a weak depression.Allanjeffs 18:09, May 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::HS, agreed, espcailly given that El Nino's tend to have late starts. I wouldn't say the past few seasons have been busts, and I think 2012 and 2013 did a very good job with what little they had. Welcome back to the forum though. As for EPAc AOI's before May 10, they sometimes happen. They are more common in the CPHC warning zone which is part of the basin. This invest looks better now, but time is almost up. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:06, May 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::It's still at '''50%' for the next 48 hours and 5 days. Maybe it won't develop after all, due to the fact that it's about to get ripped apart by unfavorable conditions. If it does become something in the very little time it has left, then it will only be a weak depression probably. I'll be very shocked to see a TS out of this puny invest, even though the invest will be remembered for its unusual timing, coming so early in the season. P.S. Welcome back to the forums HurricaneSpin! :)Steve820 01:11, May 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::Thanks for the warm welcomes! Anyway tonight will be probably the last chance for it to develop. It looks slightly better on the satellite images just as the sunlight advanced onward. This diurnal convective cycle will be its last chance to form. Formation of Amanda is unlikely though, it has to bump up 10 knots before attaining TS winds. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:00, May 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Looks like it is about to move inland. Oh well, it had its chance. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 11:58, May 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Now at near 0%. Might as well call it quits from here. I didn't really expect this one to become Amanda, shear was catching up to it before it had a chance to get going. It's true that El Nino years sometimes have late starts, as 2009 showed us, but they generally have more intense storms than non-El Nino years and can have very nasty storms in late September/October. Hopefully that won't happen this year though, the best El Nino years are the ones where everything misses land. :) 'Ryan1000' 15:15, May 9, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::It's gone. As for El Ninos, yea, they sometimes have very nasty storms, but it's usually just 1 or 2 storms, and I think it's safe to assume for now that more storms will stay at sea than not. With that said, the saying I use for El Nino's is that anything can happen. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:12, May 10, 2014 (UTC) Aoi:Old GFS system #2 GFS has been showing this before 90E even happened. It went off a few days ago when it moved over Central America (typical of models), but now are bullish in sending a hurricane somewhat near Central America around the 15th. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:12, May 10, 2014 (UTC) :It's still not on the TWO yet but it's being mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion: :LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP :WIND EVENT AND AN EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE PREDICTED BY :GFS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT :WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT REACHING GALE FORCE WED AND/OR THU...THE :MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT ON WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OCCUR. :THOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS :AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE ECMWF IS :DEVELOPING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL :CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. :Hopefully we will see early-season Amanda from this, though its a bit early to tell. Steve820 17:53, May 10, 2014 (UTC) ::It's not being monitored anymore, Amanda might have to come a bit later I guess. Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) 91.E INVEST Aoi:Amanda Chance #3 Yea, shot #2 is gone, but here we have our third chance. Euro blew this into a major a few runs ago. GFS shows either a TS or hurricane, depending on run. CMC also shows a hurricane. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:20, May 16, 2014 (UTC) :Now at 10%/20%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 12:53, May 16, 2014 (UTC) 91E.INVEST 30%/50% and invest'd. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:54, May 16, 2014 (UTC) : Interesting, it looks like we could see Amanda from this, but it will be heading out to sea. 'Ryan1000' 02:32, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::Some models bring it towards the coast. I think a see route is more likely though. Still too early to tell. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:51, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::GFS is wanting to bring it closer to shore, but not as a very strong storm if it does so. BTW, now 40%/60%. 'Ryan1000' 11:14, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :::::That's actually the blob at 95W apparently. Down to 40%/50%. Another bust?? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 11:40, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yes, conditions are getting less favorable for development. AndrewTalk To Me 11:51, May 17, 2014 (UTC) We'll see how the computer models handle this condition change. They are still looking at a TS or minimal hurricane in the days ahead from this system. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:21, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :TAM, that's not 91E! That's the blob behind it. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 16:38, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :::Now down to 30%/40%. Yeah, this is a bust, I don't expect it to become Amanda by now. 'Ryan1000' 19:01, May 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::Actually, it still has a chance, but I also think this'll become another big bust. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable, and in a couple days, conditions could become hostile. So maybe Amanda might have to come a bit later :( Steve820 19:55, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :::::Down to 20% (30%). Yeah, this is gonna be another bust. No Amanda here, hopefully our first named storm will come before June 1. Steve820 00:02, May 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::There is still winds of near gale force to the system's east. Unless it abruptly develops, this system does not have a chance. The probability of development has fallen to '''20%' for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 13:55, May 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Still 20/20. Won't form though. And the next system behind, the GFS has in fantasy land. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 18:22, May 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Oh c'mon EPac, stop being so lazy and produce Amanda soon! Do I have to pull out my massive wind shear sucker machine?! Steve820 21:08, May 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Lol, it's only May 18 and El Nino years tend to have late activity stars. To be fair, this system has winds of 30 knts and a TCFA. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 22:26, May 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::0/0. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 19:03, May 19, 2014 (UTC) 01E.NONAME Aoi:Amanda Try #4 GFS has been showing this for days. Likely fantasy, but is a 0/20 on the NHC. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:24, May 19, 2014 (UTC) :Looks like we have a new lemon. 10/20% YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:19, May 20, 2014 (UTC) ::Hopefully ''this will become Amanda. In fact, it seems to actually have potential according to what the TWO says: "Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a gradual development of this system over the next several days". Unfavorable conditions shouldn't rip it apart anytime soon, so we might see Amanda from this even though it'll probably be a weak TS. In fact, it would be damn awesome if we actually had Boris before June 1, since there are only a couple weeks until June 1st arrives. Steve820 01:59, May 20, 2014 (UTC) :::I don't think it'll happen. Notice how they only give it a 20% shot in 5 days. Normally, when they give something a 10% chance, the 4 day prob is much higher. And we won't get 2 storms before June 1; we're due for a break after back to back years of 2 May tropical cyclones. Did I mention how El Ninos tend to have late starts? YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:56, May 20, 2014 (UTC) 92E.INVEST Invest'd and up to 10/30%. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:38, May 20, 2014 (UTC) :Now code orange. 30%/50% now. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:48, May 22, 2014 (UTC) :Yay! The season has started hopefully it isn't boring (I'm looking at ''YOU ''2013!). :This storm looks decent on satellite imagery. It is probably going to be a TS soon, but I don't know about it being a hurricane just yet. :Oh crap, Wunderground said that "NOAA has predicted a quiet season in the atlantic" :NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!...... :leeboy100 (talk) 00:43, May 23, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-E Upgraded!!! Here we go!!!! :D :D Where is everyone? YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:09, May 22, 2014 (UTC) : Probably typing at the same time as I am...can't wait for this to become a storm.Isaac829 21:11, May 22, 2014 (UTC) : Will probably become Amanda but nothing too strong.I believe a moderate to strong ts or even a minimal hurricane before it weakens.Allanjeffs 21:49, May 22, 2014 (UTC) ::: I'm still here, but don't expect many others to be as this year is, by now, definitely going to be an El Nino year, where the Atlantic will be quiet, now according to NOAA as well. They're expecting 8-13 storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 majors, and ACE to be 40-100% of the 1981-2010 mean. Anyways, back to this, I'm expecting it to become Amanda, possibly even a minimal hurricane according to some of the dynamic models like HWRF or GFDL, but it'll remain out to sea either way. 'Ryan1000' 23:18, May 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::Yay, we got a new depression! Hopefully it becomes Amanda by tonight. I predict a peak of around 60-65 mph with a tiny shot at hurricane status, and the NHC takes it up to 55 kts (65 mph). And YE, your EPAC bias looks very strong right there. Don't get '''too' excited EPac lover, it's just a tiny depression we're looking at that could become a strong TS. Nothing more. Steve820 23:38, May 22, 2014 (UTC) :::::(edit conflict) I hope this becomes fairly strong, I've gained two friends named Amanda over the past few months. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:40, May 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::::This definitely has the potential to be strong, but then again many other storms early in the season never lived up to their forecasts. There will quite some time for Amanda to strengthen, so its intensity will be open to discussion until then. I think Amanda will be kind of hit and miss but it could become a hurricane. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:01, May 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Steve, wow, didn't take very long for that subject to come up (just 3 hours after the 1st storm forums). It's just exciting when the 1st storm of the season forms, especially unexpectedly. (I was in school when it was raised to 60%/70%). Granted, the fact NOAA released its forecast of 14-20/6-11/6-3 storms (most aggressive ever), and a 50% chance of above normal activity. As for lack of activity, now everyone's showed up :P I guess we're behind a couple hours than the the others forums. Word was out on Wunderground, Americanwx, and Storm2k before I posted here. Amanda could be one of those systems that weaken unexpectedly, but it could become a hurricane as well. Either way, it's no threat to land. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:18, May 23, 2014 (UTC)